Gold began March trading near $3,005 per ounce, already close to its prior all-time highs. The breakout above the psychologically significant $3,000 level on March 14 marked a pivotal moment, as it breached a resistance zone that had been tested repeatedly in late 2024. This move was accompanied by strong volume, signaling conviction among buyers. Following this breakout, gold exhibited a classic uptrend, characterized by higher highs and higher lows on daily and weekly charts. By March 31, it hit $3,127, establishing a new peak. Support levels solidified around $3,050–$3,060, a zone that acted as a consolidation base after the initial surge past $3,000. This area saw multiple retests mid-month, particularly around March 20–22, as profit-taking occurred, but dip-buying quickly resumed, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Resistance was minimal after $3,100, with the market entering uncharted territory, though some analysts flagged $3,150 as a potential near-term ceiling based on Fibonacci extensions from the 2024 rally.

Technical Analysis:

Price Range and Key Levels:

• Early March ($3,005–$3,020): Gold consolidated just above $3,000, which shifted from resistance to support. Resistance was near $3,020, a previous February high.

• Mid-March Surge ($3,020–$3,060): On March 14, gold broke above $3,020 and climbed to $3,060. The $3,050–$3,060 range became a solid support zone with multiple successful retests.

• Late March Push ($3,060–$3,127): Gold advanced past $3,100 on March 27 following tariff news, reaching a high of $3,127. $3,100 briefly acted as resistance before being overtaken, with $3,150 emerging as the next target (based on Fibonacci analysis).

• Support: $3,050–$3,060 (mid-March base), $3,000 (psychological floor)

• Resistance: $3,100 (brief), $3,150 (projected)

Trend and Momentum:

• RSI: Rose from 65 to 78 on the daily chart, entering overbought territory (above 70) by March 15 and staying there—signaling strong, sustained buying. Weekly RSI reached 72, showing continued bullish momentum without reversal signs.

• MACD: Bullish crossover on March 5, with the histogram expanding sharply by mid-month. By March 31, the MACD showed its strongest bullish momentum since late 2024.

• ADX: Climbed above 30 by mid-March and hit 40 by month-end, indicating a very strong and persistent trend.

Breakout Attempts:

• March 14 ($3,000 Breakout):

  • Setup: Gold consolidated in a tight $2,990–$3,020 range.

  • Trigger: U.S. tariff news and Fed rate cut expectations drove a breakout, closing at $3,025 (+1.5%).

  • Confirmation: High trading volume and a push to $3,060 confirmed the move, with widened Bollinger Bands indicating strong momentum.

• March 27 ($3,100 Breakout):

  • Setup: After holding $3,050–$3,060, gold approached the psychological $3,100 level.

  • Trigger: Trump’s auto tariff news boosted safe-haven demand, pushing prices to $3,127 by month-end.

  • Confirmation: Volume surged, RSI hit 78, and gold moved into uncharted territory with no immediate resistance.

Volatility and Consolidation:

• Volatility increased markedly in March, reflecting the magnitude of the price moves and external shocks. The Average True Range (ATR) on the daily chart rose from 20 (early March) to 35 by month-end, indicating larger daily price swings (e.g., $30–$50 moves became common post-March 14).

Volatility Spikes:

• March 14–16: ATR peaked near 40 as gold jumped $60 in two days.

• March 27–31: Another volatility surge accompanied the $3,100 breach, with daily ranges exceeding $40.

Consolidation Phases:

• March 17–22 ($3,050–$3,060): Gold paused after the $3,000 breakout, trading in a tight range with lower volume. RSI cooled from 75 to 68, allowing momentum to reset. Quick dip buying signaled strong demand and bullish sentiment.

• March 25–26 ($3,070–$3,090): A brief pullback from $3,100 formed a flag pattern on the 4-hour chart—typically a bullish continuation setup—just before the breakout to $3,127.

Overall: Volatility stayed elevated but controlled. Consolidation phases were healthy pauses, not signs of weakness, with gold consistently holding above key moving averages—underscoring market resilience.

Influencing Factors:

• Geopolitical and Trade Tensions: The breakout above $3,000 on March 14 coincided with U.S. tariff announcements, triggering a surge in safe-haven buying. This event catalyzed the initial technical momentum, as traders piled into long positions. The subsequent tariff escalation on March 27 (auto imports) fueled another leg up, pushing gold past $3,100. These exogenous shocks acted as catalysts for breakouts through key resistance levels.

• Central Bank and Institutional Demand: Steady buying from central banks and institutions provided a technical floor. This consistent demand prevented deeper pullbacks, as evidenced by the shallow retracements to $3,050–$3,060. The absence of significant selling pressure kept the uptrend intact, with dip-buying reinforcing support zones.

• Monetary Policy Expectations: Anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts weakened yields on U.S. Treasuries, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. This fundamental factor supported the technical bullishness, as gold maintained its upward trajectory despite a resilient U.S. dollar, which typically exerts downward pressure. The dollar’s strength (DXY near multi-month highs) failed to derail gold’s rally, a divergence that highlighted the dominance of safe-haven flows in the technical picture.

• Market Sentiment and Volume: Trading volume spiked on key breakout days (e.g., March 14 and March 27), confirming the validity of the moves. Open interest in gold futures also rose, per CFTC data, indicating fresh money entering the market rather than just short covering. This influx of capital sustained the momentum and pushed prices into overbought territory without immediate signs of exhaustion..

In conclusion, March 2025’s gold technicals showcased a powerful uptrend driven by breakouts above $3,000 and $3,100, supported by high volume, strong momentum indicators, and minimal resistance. Influencing factors like trade tensions, central bank buying, and monetary policy expectations not only fueled the fundamental rally but also shaped a technical landscape primed for further gains, barring a significant shift in market dynamics.