Price Projections for 2025

Gold is transitioning from a cyclical safe-haven asset to a strategic, long-term monetary hedge. Even amid short-term corrections or consolidations, the foundational trends—debt monetization, geopolitical fracturing, and fiat skepticism—support a durable upward bias. Institutional interest is increasingly strategic rather than opportunistic.

• Expected Range: US$3,200 – US$3,600/oz

• Bull Case: Push toward US$3,800 if real interest rates fall and safe-haven demand returns strongly.

• Bear Case: Retest of US$3,050 – US$3,150 support if dollar strength persists and geopolitical tensions ease further. 

Key Influencing Factors

1. Federal Reserve Policy

   • Market anticipates rate cuts in late 2025, especially if labor market weakens or inflation undershoots.

   • Lower real yields would reduce opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting prices toward the upper bound of the range.
     
     

2. Geopolitical Factors

   • Ceasefires and temporary calm in conflict zones have tempered safe-haven flows.

   • Any renewed conflict (e.g., Taiwan Strait, Middle East) could spark sudden surges in gold.
     
     

3. Central Bank Demand

   • Central banks continue to accumulate gold — albeit at a slower pace than H1 2024 peaks.

   • Notably, PBoC and other BRICS+ banks remain long-term buyers, underpinning structural demand.
     
     

4. USD & Global Liquidity

   • Dollar strength in Q2 capped gold’s upside.

   • A softening dollar in H2, especially if U.S. growth stalls, would reinvigorate gold demand from emerging markets.
     
     

5. Investor Positioning

   • ETF inflows have plateaued; institutional flows are subdued but ready to respond to macro shifts.

   • Retail interest remains steady, with increasing adoption of fractional digital gold products.

Medium-Term Projections (2026–2030)

Gold's medium-term outlook (2026–2030) is projected to remain in a structurally bullish environment, supported by long-term macroeconomic shifts:

• Price Range: US$3,500 – US$4,500 per ounce

• Drivers:

  • Sovereign debt escalation and monetary easing cycles.

  • Greater diversification from USD in global reserves (led by BRICS+).

  • Rising retail and institutional preference for tangible, uncorrelated assets. 
    
    

• Long-Term Projections (Beyond 2030)

Post-2030, gold’s trajectory will largely hinge on the evolution of the global monetary system and technological advancements:

• Target Zone: US$4,500 – US$6,500+/oz

• Structural Themes:

  • Depletion of high-grade reserves and increased cost of new production.

  • Environmental and regulatory pressures limiting mine expansions.

  • Monetary system shifts (e.g., central bank digital currencies with gold backing) could reinstate gold's monetary role.

  • Asia and Middle East driving long-term demand through cultural and reserve-based channels.

Summary

Gold remains in a multi-year secular bull market. While 2025 may bring consolidation below US$3,600, the medium-term trajectory (2026–2030) favors steady upside toward US$4,500. Beyond 2030, transformative macro shifts could push gold above $6,000. Strategic accumulation during pullbacks remains a favored approach for long-term portfolios.