Welcoming our friends from The David Lin Report.
This is our latest newsletter alongside Gold related clips from TDLR.
REAL-TIME IN SITU VALUE OF STLLR'S COMBINED ESTIMATED MINERAL RESOURCE OUNCES
STLLR News
2025 PEA HIGHLIGHTS
TOWER GOLD PROJECT
STLLR's flagship asset in the renowned Timmins Mining Camp and one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in Canada. |
ARTICLES
Gold Commentary
Gold Market
The gold market in May 2025 has been characterized by heightened volatility, driven by a complex blend of macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and technical price dynamics. Following record highs earlier in the year, gold prices entered a consolidation phase, fluctuating within a broad range between $3,180 and $3,398 per ounce. While the underlying long-term bullish trend remains intact, fueled by inflation concerns and strong central bank demand, short-term price action has been choppy and reactive to global developments.
Investor sentiment has been shaped by a mix of risk aversion due to trade tensions and safe-haven demand amid central bank policy shifts. On the technical front, gold has struggled to establish a clean breakout above the psychological $3,400–$3,500 resistance zone, showing signs of momentum loss and consolidation. These dynamics suggest a market at a critical juncture—awaiting either renewed bullish catalysts or deeper corrective moves.
Influencing Factors: Several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors drove gold’s performance:
- Geopolitical Tensions: Recent tariff announcements and global political uncertainties have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
- Economic Indicators: Concerns over inflation, currency devaluation, and central bank policies have further bolstered gold's appeal to investors seeking stability.
- Investor Behavior: Institutional and retail investors have shown increased interest in gold, with central banks continuing to add to their reserves.
Technical Analysis
- Trend & Momentum: Gold's long-term uptrend remains intact, supported by a breakout above the $2,070 resistance in 2024. However, the current RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting potential for short-term consolidation.
- Key Levels:
- Resistance: $3,500 has acted as a significant resistance level, with multiple failed attempts to break above it.
- Support: The $3,172 level has provided strong support, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally.
- Breakout Attempts: Gold's attempts to sustain levels above $3,400 have been met with selling pressure, indicating a need for stronger catalysts to drive a decisive breakout.
- Volatility & Consolidation: The market has experienced heightened volatility, with sharp price swings influenced by geopolitical developments and economic data releases. Currently, gold appears to be consolidating within a range, awaiting clearer directional cues.
Conclusion
Gold's price action in May 2025 reflects a market grappling with competing forces. While the long-term bullish trend remains supported by macroeconomic factors and investor demand, technical indicators suggest caution in the short term. Traders and investors should monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as global economic developments, to navigate the current consolidation phase effectively.
Outlook
Price Projections for 2025
While gold may encounter near-term resistance as it digests recent gains, the fundamental setup for 2025 supports a bullish medium-term view. Investors should expect intermittent consolidation, but major dips are likely to be bought aggressively. A sustained break above the psychological $3,500 level would validate a shift to higher price ranges for the remainder of the year.
- Base Case: $3,300 – $3,600/oz
- Bull Case: $3,600 – $4,000/oz
- Bear Case: $2,900 – $3,200/oz
Key Influencing Factors
1. Macroeconomic Environment
- Interest Rates: If central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, begin cutting rates in the second half of 2025, this would reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, strengthening demand.
- Inflation Outlook: Persistent inflation above central bank targets, especially if deemed structural rather than transitory, would drive investors toward gold as a real asset hedge.
- Recession Risk: Should growth falter or recession fears return, safe-haven flows into gold are likely to accelerate.
2. Geopolitical Risk
- Ongoing global conflicts (Ukraine-Russia, Middle East instability) or new flashpoints (e.g., South China Sea tensions) would keep a risk premium embedded in gold.
- Political instability in major economies, particularly in a U.S. election year, could trigger market turbulence and boost gold.
3. Currency & Debt Dynamics
- Dollar Weakness: A gradual decline in USD due to twin deficits and increasing global diversification efforts could lift gold.
- Sovereign Debt Concerns: Elevated global debt and fiscal deficits may lead investors to seek hard assets as protection from fiscal mismanagement.
4. Investment Demand
- Institutional and retail flows into gold ETFs and physical bullion remain supportive.
- Central bank buying (notably from China, Russia, India) is expected to continue at a high pace, providing strong demand-side support.
5. Technical Setup
- As of May 2025, gold has entered a high-level consolidation phase just below the $3,400 resistance.
- A confirmed breakout above $3,500 could trigger momentum-driven buying up to $3,800.
- Conversely, a breakdown below $3,150 would risk a deeper retracement to $3,000–$3,050, which should act as strong structural support.
Medium-Term Projections (2026–2030)
Gold's medium-term outlook (2026–2030) is projected to remain in a structurally bullish environment, supported by long-term macroeconomic shifts:
- Price Range: $3,500 – $4,500 per ounce
- Drivers:
- Gradual de-dollarization and diversification of global reserves
- Continued central bank gold accumulation, especially by BRICS+ nations
- Persistent inflation risk and debt-driven fiscal expansion in developed economies
- Increased retail and institutional demand for hard assets amid digital asset volatility
Key Risk: A significant shift toward high real interest rates or a breakthrough in global geopolitical stability could cap gains.
Long-Term Projections (Beyond 2030)
Post-2030, gold’s trajectory will largely hinge on the evolution of the global monetary system and technological advancements:
- Price Range: $4,500 – $6,000+ per ounce
- Supporting Themes:
- Potential remonetization of gold or its inclusion in future digital currency frameworks
- Supply constraints as high-grade, low-cost reserves are depletedRising wealth in Asia and the Middle East increasing physical gold demand
- Environmental and permitting constraints slowing new mine development
Gold may increasingly serve as an anchor in a bifurcated financial system or in response to growing distrust in fiat currencies.
Summary
Gold is well-positioned for sustained appreciation through 2025 and beyond. Medium-term projections call for steady upside toward $4,500, while longer-term forces could push prices past $6,000. Strategic investors and institutions are expected to maintain or grow their allocations as gold’s relevance intensifies in a shifting global order.
Gold on Socials
Interesting Posts on X.com
@GoldPredictors
#GOLD remains strongly bullish. Consolidation is a part of bullish patterns, especially after consecutive months of gains. A break above $3,500 could trigger another surge toward $4,000.
#GOLD remains strongly bullish. Consolidation is a part of bullish patterns, especially after consecutive months of gains. A break above $3,500 could trigger another surge toward $4,000.
@chamath: If this is even remotely true, combined with everything else happening rn, the only safe trade are hard assets and, dare I say, gold. Sheesh.
@Sorenthek: *CHINA ANNOUNCES GOLD SWAP FACILITY **MEXICO PLEDGES ALL 2026 SILVER PRODUCTION IN SWAP FOR GOLD SGE CLEARED
https://x.com/Sorenthek/status/1927867426697330726
@GoldSilverHQ: $10000 Gold is conservative. It would just (almost) copy the last two major bull cycles from the late 70s & 00s. Luckily this time it won't just be a cycle, but a monetary reset.
https://x.com/GoldSilverHQ/status/1927659864093753448
@ceodotca: "I sold 50% of my big gold stocks… and moved into juniors." Why? Jacques Bonneau says the junior bull market is back. His gold target: $3,500/oz His read on the last 12 years: "Mostly bearish for juniors" His call now: We're at the beginning of a bullish phase for junior exploration companies Watch the short. Then catch the full CrashLabs episode for more on gold, juniors & what’s next. $Gold #JuniorMiners #GoldStocks #investing
@BankerWeimar: Gold miners don’t hedge the gold price anymore. They are generating higher free cashflow yields than any other industry on earth… but most investors don’t know what an FCF yield is It’s a bit of a paradox
@KingKong9888: “If you don't own gold, you know neither history nor economics.” RAY DALIO
@Barchart: WOAH WOAH WOAH.. Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates opened up a $319 million position in Gold $GLD according to a new 13F filing:
@baldguymoney: Gold in Fort Knox & Gold Revaluation! This is what US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, had to say on the topic. How do you interpret this??
@taylorkenneyitm: Got gold? 
|
Price Performance & Forecast
Price Performance Charts: Since January 1/20, 1-Year, 3-Month, 1-Month
Gold Price vs. S&P 500 vs. Nasdaq vs. Dow Jones ending May 31, 2025
(Source: WGC, STLLR Estimates, TradingView)
Gold Price Performance Per Currency
Currency
May
1-Year
USD
+2.2%
+39.4%
Euro
+1.6%
+33.7%
JPY
+2.6%
+29.5%
GBR
+0.4%
+31.8%
CAD
+1.3%
+41.4%
CHF
+1.5%
+27.3%
INR
+1.8%
+42.6%
CNY
+1.0%
+39.0%
TRY
+4.0%
+67.7%
SAR
+2.2%
+39.4%
IDR
-0.1%
+42.6%
AED
+2.2%
+39.4%
THB
-0.2%
+25.5%
VND
+2.5%
+42.2%
EGP
+0.7%
+48.2%
KRW
-1.3%
+42.1%
RUB
-1.5%
+23.1%
ZAR
-2.2%
+37.1%
AUD
-0.3%
+43.5%
(Source: WGC, Goldprice.org)
CONNECT WITH US
Let’s Start a Conversation
We value open communication with our investors. Connect with us through social media or reach out directly:
Fill out the form below to start your journey with STLLR Gold.
Our team is ready to assist you.