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This is our latest newsletter alongside Gold related clips from TDLR.
REAL-TIME IN SITU VALUE OF STLLR'S COMBINED ESTIMATED MINERAL RESOURCE OUNCES
STLLR News
ARTICLES
Gold Commentary
Gold Market
- Geopolitical and Trade Tensions: Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly following President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and threats against the EU, heightened economic uncertainty. These policies, aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit, fueled safe-haven demand for gold, pushing prices toward $3,300 by mid-April.
- Central Bank Demand: Central banks, notably the People’s Bank of China, resumed significant gold purchases, adding 5 tonnes in November 2024 and 10 tonnes in December. A World Gold Council survey indicated 29% of central banks planned to increase reserves through April 2025, contributing to sustained demand.
- Monetary Policy: Expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts persisted, despite cautious signals due to persistent inflation risks from tariffs and tax cuts. Lower interest rates reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting its rally. A weaker U.S. dollar, projected to decline 6% by some analysts, further bolstered gold prices.
- Inflation and Economic Uncertainty: Rising inflation expectations, driven by potential stagflation and increasing U.S. federal debt ($36.383 trillion), enhanced gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Concerns over deteriorating economic conditions and higher deficits due to increased military spending also supported demand.
- Investor Sentiment: Record inflows into gold ETFs, with global holdings at 3,235 tonnes (18% below the 2020 peak), reflected strong investor interest. The unwinding of the “Trump trade” (strong dollar and equities) redirected capital to gold as a hedge against volatility.
- Range: Gold traded between approximately $3,016.79 (April 4 low, post-correction) and $3,402 (April 21 high). The monthly range was roughly $385, reflecting high volatility.
- Key Levels:
- Support: $3,050–$3,060 (March consolidation zone, held during early April dips); $3,113–$3,116 (April 4 settlement, tested mid-month); $3,290 (noted as critical support in technical analyses).
- Resistance: $3,332, $3,344, $3,357 (medium-term levels per X posts); $3,400–$3,402 (new highs late April). The $3,300 level was a psychological barrier breached mid-month, with $3,350 acting as a key target for the ascending broadening wedge pattern.
- Behavior: Early April saw a correction from $3,139.90 to $3,113.89, testing $3,100 support. Mid-month consolidation around $3,150–$3,200 preceded a late-month surge to $3,350–$3,402, driven by renewed tariff fears and Asian demand.
- Trend: The trend was unequivocally bullish, with gold forming higher highs and higher lows on daily and weekly charts. The 50-day moving average (around $3,100 mid-month) provided dynamic support, while the 200-day moving average (near $2,900) underscored the long-term uptrend.
- Momentum Indicators:
- RSI: Rose from 70 (early April) to 78 by late April, entering overbought territory but sustaining bullishness. Brief dips to 65 during mid-month consolidation alleviated overbought conditions.
- MACD: A bullish crossover persisted from March, with the MACD line widening above the signal line. The histogram expanded, reflecting accelerating momentum, particularly post-April 16 ($3,300 breach).
- ADX: Climbed to 35–40, confirming a strong trend. The directional movement indicators (+DI above –DI) reinforced bullish dominance.
- Observations: Momentum peaked with the $3,350–$3,400 push, but overbought RSI signaled potential for short-term pullbacks, though the trend remained intact.
- April 2 ($3,139.90 High):
- Setup: Gold consolidated above $3,100 in late March, forming a tight range ($3,100–$3,120).
- Trigger: Tariff announcements and central bank buying drove a breakout to $3,139.90, with high volume confirming the move.
- Outcome: The breakout was followed by a 1.54% correction, testing $3,113.89, but support held, validating the bullish structure.
- April 16–21 ($3,300–$3,402):
- Setup: After mid-month consolidation ($3,150–$3,200), gold formed an ascending broadening wedge, targeting $3,350.
- Trigger: Intensified U.S.-China trade tensions and Asian demand (noted in X posts) sparked a surge to $3,300 (April 16) and $3,402 (April 21).
- Outcome: Volume spikes and positive RSI signals confirmed the breakout, with $3,350 acting as a new base. The move invalidated bearish wedge concerns from earlier analyses.
- Volatility:
- ATR: The Average True Range rose from 35 (March-end) to 50 by late April, reflecting daily swings of $50–$100 (e.g., $3,016.79 to $3,139.90 early April; $3,300 to $3,402 late April).
- Spikes: Volatility peaked around April 4 (3% decline to $3,016.79) and April 16–21 ($65–$90 daily gains), driven by tariff news and market reactions.
- Consolidation Phases:
- April 4–10 ($3,113–$3,150): Post-correction, gold consolidated in a tight range, with lower volume and RSI cooling to 65. This formed a bullish flag, setting up the mid-month rally.
- April 12–15 ($3,150–$3,200): A second consolidation phase saw gold coil above $3,150, with the 20-day moving average ($3,120) providing support. This preceded the $3,300 breakout.
- Observations: Consolidation phases were brief and shallow, with dips quickly absorbed by buyers, reflecting strong demand. Volatility remained elevated but supported the bullish trend, with no significant bearish reversals.
Outlook
Price Projections for 2025
Gold has already seen substantial gains in 2025, with prices increasing by approximately 13–29% year-to-date (as of May 2025, depending on the source) from a starting price of around $2,639 per troy ounce. Forecasts for the remainder of 2025 are optimistic, with most analysts expecting prices to continue rising due to sustained demand and favorable economic conditions. Specific projections include:
Goldman Sachs: Predicts gold will reach $3,100 per troy ounce by the end of 2025, an 8% increase from current levels, with potential upside to $3,300 if policy uncertainty or central bank demand exceeds expectations.
CoinPriceForecast: Projects a year-end price of $3,535–$4,045, implying a 18–24% rise from current prices (around $2,993–$3,395 as of May 2025).
LongForecast: Forecasts a price of $4,261 by December 2025, with monthly projections showing steady growth (e.g., $3,531 in May, $3,694 in June, $4,136 in August).
LiteFinance: Estimates a range of $3,077.76–$3,720.38 by year-end, with a base case of $3,357.00.
StoneX Bullion: Predicts a price of around $3,150 by the end of 2025.
J.P. Morgan: Projects a range of $2,775–$2,850, slightly less bullish but still anticipating growth.
World Gold Council: Suggests a potential for $3,000, supported by continued central bank buying and geopolitical risks.
BullionVault Users: Average prediction of $3,070 by December 2025.
Consensus Range for 2025: Most forecasts converge around $3,000–$3,500 per troy ounce by the end of 2025, with some optimistic projections reaching $4,000. This suggests a potential 10–30% increase from current levels (approximately $3,000–$3,395 as of May 2025).
Medium-Term Projections (2026–2030)
The medium-term outlook (2026–2030) remains positive, with analysts expecting gold to maintain its upward trajectory, potentially reaching $4,000–$5,000 by 2030. Key projections include:
2026:
LiteFinance: Prices could climb to $3,319.45–$4,133.86, with CoinCodex forecasting a range of $3,605.62–$4,046.63.
CoinPriceForecast: Predicts $3,802–$4,543 by year-end 2026, a 27–40% increase from current prices.
StoneX Bullion: Projects a maximum of $3,800.
LongForecast: Expects prices to stabilize around $4,219–$4,859 by early 2026.
InvestingHaven: Forecasts a price near $3,805.
2027–2028:
WalletInvestor: Predicts $3,800.55 by the end of 2028.
CoinCodex: Projects $4,270.98 by the end of 2028.
CoinPriceForecast: Sees prices reaching $4,736–$5,015 by 2027 and up to $6,754–$6,851 by 2031.
LongForecast: Anticipates $6,171–$6,554 by the end of 2027.
2030:
LiteFinance: Projects $4,988.99–$5,194.00.
StoneX Bullion: Predicts a maximum of $5,150.
InvestingHaven: Forecasts a peak of $5,155.
CoinPriceForecast: Estimates $6,048–$6,851, suggesting a 59% increase from 2026 levels.
Consensus Range for 2030: Analysts generally expect gold to trade between $4,500 and $6,500 by 2030, with some variation based on inflationary pressures and geopolitical developments.
Long-Term Projections (Beyond 2030)
Long-term forecasts (2032–2050) are more speculative due to the increasing uncertainty of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. However, the outlook remains broadly positive:
LiteFinance: Suggests prices could reach $8,243–$10,000 by 2040–2050, driven by persistent demand and inflation.
CoinPriceForecast: Projects $8,752–$10,000 by 2036, with steady growth continuing through 2032 ($6,772–$8,767).
Bloomberg Intelligence: Analyst Mike McGlone predicts a potential $7,000 by 2025 in an extreme bullish scenario, with long-term growth possible if inflation persists.
Consensus Long-Term Outlook: Prices could range from $6,000 to $10,000 by 2040, with extreme scenarios (e.g., hyperinflation or severe geopolitical crises) potentially pushing prices higher. However, forecasts beyond 2030 are highly uncertain and depend on global economic stability.
Summary
The outlook for gold prices in 2025 and beyond is predominantly bullish, with prices expected to reach $3,000–$3,500 by the end of 2025, $4,000–$5,000 by 2030, and potentially $6,000–$10,000 by 2040. Key drivers include central bank demand, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and declining interest rates, though risks like increased mining supply, a stronger U.S. dollar, or reduced investor interest could temper gains. Investors should adopt a cautious approach, diversifying portfolios and monitoring macroeconomic and geopolitical developments closely. For precise investment decisions, consulting financial advisors and conducting independent research is advisable, as past performance and forecasts are not guaranteed indicators of future results.
Gold on Socials
Interesting Posts on X.com
https://x.com/KingKong9888/status/1913636854949417162
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Price Performance & Forecast
Price Performance Charts: Since January 1/20, 1-Year, 3-Month, 1-Month
Gold Price vs. S&P 500 vs. Nasdaq vs. Dow Jones ending April 30, 2025
(Source: WGC, STLLR Estimates, TradingView)
Gold Price Performance Per Currency
Currency
April
1-Year
USD
+7.5%
+37.3%
Euro
+3.7%
+31.4%
JPY
+4.2%
+28.8%
GBR
+5.8%
+30.9%
CAD
+4.8%
+40.5%
CHF
+1.7%
+26.1%
INR
+6.4%
+41.0%
CNY
+8.2%
+38.5%
TRY
+10.4%
+62.0%
SAR
+7.6%
+37.4%
IDR
+9.8%
+43.6%
AED
+7.5%
+37.4%
THB
+7.5%
+26.1%
VND
+8.9%
+41.1%
EGP
+8.3%
+46.4%
KRW
+6.3%
+44.5%
RUB
+4.6%
+23.2%
ZAR
+11.4%
+37.7%
AUD
+7.8%
+42.3%
(Source: WGC, Goldprice.org)
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